The 2025 Bihar assembly election is proving to be a close contest, with only a percentage point separating the two major alliances, according to an internal survey commissioned by the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), per the Hindustan Times.
The survey indicates that the NDA could slightly improve on its 2020 performance, securing around 130 out of 243 seats, compared to 125 in the previous election.
Chief minister Nitish Kumar’s approval rating stands at 65%, the report notes, while Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is surfacing as a new factor, securing around 9% of the vote share.
Interestingly, the NDA survey echoes findings from the Congress’s early ground reports, which also suggest little anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar, even after his nearly two-decade-long tenure in power.
“People can see the village-centric development under Nitish Kumar,’’ Neeraj Kumar, a JD(U) legislative council member told the Hindustan Times. “While Tejashwi is promising a government job in every family, which is not something a state government can deliver, our government is ensuring the Jeevika Didi scheme, that every woman does get ₹10,000. We have consistently empowered women.”
However, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has been vocal about the chief minister’s health, while Prashant Kishor has repeatedly alleged corruption among Bihar’s ministers. Yet, according to the NDA’s survey, only 31% of respondents felt that Kumar’s tenure had been “a dismal one.”
The survey places the Opposition between 102 and 107 seats, with Jan Suraaj and others expected to pick up two to three seats.
“We are ahead, but Prashant Kishor is limited to about 6–7%,” said Shashant Shekhar, a former poll strategist and Congress ticket aspirant, per the HT report. “He is trying to be too smart and will try to place candidates who will eat into our vote share. But the people will see through him.”
