With Bihar all set to conclude the final phase of the 2025 Assembly elections, the focus has shifted to the exit poll results that will be announced on Tuesday evening, after the last round of voting. The official counting of votes and declaration of results for the 243-member Bihar Vidhan Sabha will take place on November 14. A simple majority of 122 seats is needed to form the government.
According to a report by the Hindustan Times, this is a high-stakes election that will determine whether Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U)-BJP-led NDA retains power or if Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD-Congress-led INDIA bloc can end Kumar’s two-decade-long rule. Once polling ends around 5 pm, major pollsters, including Today’s Chanakya, Axis My India, CSDS, C Voter, Times Now, and Poll of Poll, will begin releasing their projections.
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What are exit polls?
The exit poll is a post-voting survey intended to assess the choice of the voter and predict the possible outcome of the election. These polls are conducted right after voters leave polling stations in order to gauge how people voted and why.
Although these exit polls are not wholly accurate at times, they give a snapshot of the voter sentiment and help in the identification of the trends or swing patterns before the declaration of the official results. Their accuracy substantially depends upon the sampling methodology adopted, the sample size, and the willingness of the electorate to faithfully state their preference.
Unlike opinion polls, which are conducted prior to voting and depend on expected choices, exit polls indicate the real trend of voting on election day and thus present a more up-to-date and realistic picture.
How are exit polls conducted?
Survey teams stationed near polling booths approach voters after they have cast their votes. Respondents are asked to fill in structured questionnaires covering their vote choice and basic demographics such as age, gender, and religion, which may affect voting behaviour. Agencies choose the polling stations from urban and rural constituencies and select a random or strategic sampling in order to ensure broad representation.
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The data gathered is then analysed to detect regional variations and estimate which parties or candidates are likely to lead in those areas. Though conducted by private agencies, exit polls follow strict regulations set by the Election Commission of India.
According to ECI guidelines, no exit poll data can be published or broadcast until the final phase of polling is concluded. Any violation may attract penalties, fines, or imprisonment for up to two years.
