4th September, Thursday: The Economic Research Group at ICICI Bank has released a research report predicting that Indian gold prices will continue to rise, trading between Rs 99,500 and Rs 110,000 per ten grams for the remainder of 2025 and rising to Rs 110,000 to Rs 125,000 in the first half of 2026.
The report says, "Risks to these projections are to the upside if the INR trades at a much depreciated level against the USD than our projections. We have assumed an average range of 87.00-89.00 for the USD/INR pair for the period." The report notes that expectations of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve and ongoing institutional concerns about the US economy have helped to support the roughly 33% increase in global gold prices so far in 2025. In the first half of 2026, analysts predict that global bullion will have strengthened to USD 3600–3800 per ounce after averaging USD 3400–3600 per ounce for the rest of 2025."If geo-political tensions intensify, there could be a further upside to these ranges," adds the report.
Developments over 2025-26
These developments include the expected 125 basis points of Fed rate cuts over 2025-26 and continued diversification by both central banks and investors from currencies away from the US dollar.
At home, here in India, the upward leg in gold prices has been supported by a weaker rupee and strong investment demand. July 2025 Indian imports increased dramatically from USD 1.8 billion in June to USD 4.0 billion in July 2025, which reflects the firm local demand with the approaching festive season. In addition, gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced heavy inflows YTD, with investments almost double that of last year. The report also indicated that the appetite of investors in gold ETFs has also been evident.
June's inflow of Billions
While this was lower than June's inflow of Rs 20.8 billion, the year-to-date tally of Rs 92.8 billion was more than double the Rs 45.2 billion seen in the same period last year.
Although the report cautions that risks to the projections are skewed to the upside, particularly if the Indian rupee depreciates beyond the assumed range of 87-89 against the US dollar.
