A sharp correction is in progress in global trade, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and unstable consumer demand. The record-breaking iPhone shipments clearly indicate that the electronics segment is about to become the world’s second-most-shipped goods category. However, India’s oil exports are projected to fall following the Trump administration’s aggressive new sanctions on Russia.
The market data shows a structural shift in logistics. The Q3 of consumer electronics saw a robust performance in sales from giants like Apple. Apple’s shipments in India alone surged 47 per cent Year-on-Year in the last quarter. This steady, high-value demand is driving the entire electronics category and is expected to overtake automotive components as the world’s second-most shipped category by volume within the next fiscal quarter.
However, this technological boom is set against a backdrop of intensifying geopolitical risk. The primary reason for the new trade disruption is Washington. Last week, the Trump administration escalated its economic war on Russia by imposing full blocking sanctions on Russia's two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move goes far beyond previous tariffs, aiming to sever the companies from the US dollar-based global financial system.
The impact on India, which had emerged as a global hub for importing discounted Russian crude, has been immediate and severe. Indian refiners, including private giant Reliance Industries and state-owned firms, had built a profitable export business by purchasing Russian Urals oil (a blend of heavy sour oil from the Urals/Volga region and light oil from Western Siberia), refining it, and re-exporting products like diesel and jet fuel.
Indian refiners are reportedly pausing all new Russian crude purchases, fearing being cut off from global banking. This important segment, which acts like a pivot, will create a significant vacuum in India's export figures, with analysts forecasting a sharp decline in refined petroleum shipments, which is one of the country’s top export earners, through the final quarter of 2025.
