Who will ‘win’ Bihar today? Will the manihaar once again go to Nitish Kumar, or will Tejashwi Yadav take it from him? Or will the last laugh belong to the ‘non-playing captain’ Prashant Kishor? Everything will become clear within a few hours.
Buoyed by the findings of the exit polls, the NDA is currently counting down to what they believe will be a victory. A large section of political analysts believe that three factors must “work” in favour of the BJP-led alliance for that to happen:
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Welfare schemes for women (especially the first installment of ₹10,000 each promised to 1.5 crore women under the Chief Minister Mahila Rozgar Yojana to start businesses)
The Nitish Kumar factor
If all three fall into place, Nitish Kumar will take oath as Chief Minister for the tenth time.
On the other side is the RJD-led seven-party Mahagathbandhan (MGB). Their campaign centered on parivartan (change) and employment. Beyond that, their biggest asset is Tejashwi himself, young, energetic, and having already proved his leadership. In contrast, Nitish has been in power for 20 years. For that reason, the alliance projected Tejashwi as their chief ministerial candidate.
However, even then, the decisive factor will remain the caste equation. How far the RJD has extended its influence beyond its traditional Muslim-Yadav base to other OBC and EBC groups, how the youth have responded to the promise of “at least one job per household,” and to what extent women perceive Tejashwi as a reliable figure, all of this will influence who ultimately sits on the throne of Magadh.
Analysts are unanimous on one point: the weakest link of the MGB is once again the Congress. Although Rahul Gandhi generated massive enthusiasm during his ‘Voter Adhikar Yatra,’ experts believe it is unlikely to translate significantly into votes. Additionally, this election includes candidates from Prashant Kishor’s new party Jan Suraj Party (JSP). Whether the JSP merely cuts votes to become a kingmaker, surprises everyone to become the king, or collapses as hinted in exit polls—those answers are already beginning to take shape today.
This year’s voter turnout in Bihar has become a major talking point. No previous election in the state has seen such a high turnout. Generally, higher turnout is interpreted as anti-incumbency or a vote for change, although there have been exceptions. Hence, the big question is: Why did so many people vote this time? There is also speculation that the surge in voting may be a reaction to many voters allegedly being hurriedly disenfranchised on the pretext of updating “Saar” data.
According to the Election Commission, turnout in the first phase was 65.08%, and in the second phase 68.76%. Combined turnout is 66.91%, which is 9.62% higher than last time. As per tradition, women once again voted in higher numbers than men—about 71.6%.
In the last two Assembly elections in Bihar, women’s turnout was 59.69% (2020) and 60.48% (2015). Some analysts believe that higher female turnout benefits the NDA. Meanwhile, Prashant Kishor argues that the increased turnout signals that Bihar will see a new government on 14 November. According to him, though women are important this time, the migrant workers are the real X-factor. Tejashwi, on the other hand, said, “I thank the people of Bihar for the high turnout. I am confident you have ensured the Mahagathbandhan’s victory.” At Wednesday’s press conference, he even announced that he would take oath as Chief Minister on 18 November.
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Meanwhile, Home Minister Amit Shah predicted that the NDA would win more than 160 seats. Trusting his words, BJP workers have already begun preparations, booking marquees, buying flowers and firecrackers, and placing large orders for marigolds.
No matter who forms the government, the issues raised during this year’s Bihar election cannot be disregarded: unemployment, law-and-order concerns, mass migration of workers to other states, allegations of gundaraj, corruption, and women’s safety. Additionally, Rahul Gandhi, Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, has alleged proof-based election rigging—how much that affected voters will also become clear today.
