The Nobel Institute has flagged the potential espionage of the Nobel Peace Prize to Venezuelan Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. The Nobel Institute on Saturday told Norway’s TV2 that it was "highly likely" the result of espionage, news agency AFP reported.
The official announcement of the award came on Friday at 10 am local time, but online betting for Polymarket already heated up late Thursday. Machado's probabilities jumped over 73% soon after midnight, drawing raised eyebrows among onlookers.
Betting markets trigger alarm
The surprise surge in Machado's odds caught everyone off guard. Neither media outlets nor experts had included her as a top contender, so the bump in bets was all the more suspicious. According to AFP, for a fleeting 45-minute period, Yulia Navalnaya, Russian opposition leader Aleksei Navalny's widow, had her odds briefly tick up, but Machado's odds regained the top spot and remained high until the official announcement.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Nobel Institute and secretary to the Nobel Committee, stated to Norway's TV2, " Highly likely it's espionage. The institute would investigate the unusual activity and, where necessary, we will further tighten security." He further added that although espionage may create the illusion of an insider's leak, intentional leaks from inside are "unlikely." He said, "It's too certain to say for sure, but it's no secret that the Nobel Institute is subject to espionage.”
Committee dismisses internal breach
Despite this, Nobel Committee chairman Jorgen Watne Frydnes dismissed the theory of an internal leak. " I don't think there have ever been any leaks in the entire history of the prize. I can't imagine that's the case," he said to NTB news agency.
Machado, who was barred from competing in Venezuela's 2024 presidential election, was awarded the Peace Prize for her tireless call for democratic rights and struggle to win a transition from dictatorship to democracy peacefully.
