Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions have escalated following the deadly cross-border fire between the two neighbors, raising fears of an expanded regional conflict. The clash followed last Thursday's strikes in Kabul and the border province of Paktika, for which the Taliban blamed Pakistan. Although Islamabad has not explicitly acknowledged the violence.
The escalation occurred during Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s visit to India, aggravating Islamabad. Experts say the newest confrontation may signal a new era of turmoil for the two nations, long tied by strategic but tense relations.
The violence has prompted calls for restraint from China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, while U.S. President Donald Trump offered to broker peace, saying, “I hear there’s a war now going on between Pakistan and Afghanistan. I’m good at solving wars, I’m good at making peace.”
Sharpest escalation in years
Taliban blamed Pakistan for launching an "unprecedented, violent and reprehensible" attack on Kabul and Paktika on Thursday evening. Pakistan officially hasn't taken responsibility, but the military official Lt. Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry mentioned there is "evidence" that Afghanistan is being used as a base of operations for carrying out terrorism in Pakistan.”
Pakistan has long been accusing Kabul of harboring the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), which the Taliban refute. Islamabad has had to contend with an upsurge in Islamist militancy ever since the Taliban grabbed power in 2021, which emboldened militant groups.
On Saturday evening, the Taliban reported that it had launched retaliatory attacks against the Pakistani forces in the Kunar and Nangarhar border provinces. Pakistan described the attacks as "unprovoked" and retaliated with airstrikes and ground raids against Taliban camps and terrorist bases in Afghanistan. The Taliban then stated that it suspended operations following mediation by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, CNN World reported.
Differing death tolls
Both parties reported differing death tolls. Pakistan said it killed more than 200 militants, while the Taliban claimed nine casualties. The Taliban, in turn, reported that it killed 58 Pakistani soldiers - much more than Pakistan's 23.
A complex and long history
The two countries have a 1,600-mile disputed border, the Durand Line, and a history of hostility and cooperation. Pakistan, traditionally a strong supporter of the Taliban insurgency, has taken in millions of Afghan refugees but recently began expelling many of them in the interest of fighting terrorism.
Relations have worsened with increased attacks by the TTP, which launched an estimated 600 attacks against Pakistani security forces last year, as per the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED).
After clashes on Saturday, Pakistan's military threatened to "not tolerate the treacherous use of Afghan soil for terrorism against Pakistan" and shut its two primary border crossings with Afghanistan.
India-Taliban ties stir tension
Islamabad observed that the "serious provocation" took place when Muttaqi visited India, Pakistan’s long-time regional rival. During the visit, New Delhi announced it would reopen its embassy in Kabul, terming the move "an important step in advancing our ties and affirming the enduring friendship."
Antoine Levesques, Senior Fellow for South and Central Asian Defense, Strategy and Diplomacy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNN that Islamabad and New Delhi have “competed bloodily for influence in Afghanistan for decades.” He further described the visit as a "step-change" in India-Taliban relations, " raising the feeling of insecurity for Pakistan on both its eastern and western borders."
