Actor-turned-politician Vijay has emerged as the biggest political surprise of the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections after his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, became the single-largest force in the state with 108 seats. But despite the momentum and Congress extending support, the road to government formation remains uncertain.
The Congress’s willingness to back the TVK is being viewed as a major political development, especially after the party hinted at supporting a non-BJP government in the state. However, the arithmetic inside the Assembly shows that Vijay still does not have enough numbers to comfortably cross the majority mark.
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In the 243-member Tamil Nadu Assembly, a party or alliance requires 118 seats to form the government. While TVK has secured 108 seats, Congress has won just five. Even if both parties come together, the combined tally rises only to 113 which is still five short of the halfway mark.
Congress general secretary K. C. Venugopal indicated openness to supporting TVK, stating that the Congress was determined to prevent the BJP or its “proxies” from influencing governance in Tamil Nadu.
Smaller parties may hold the key
The numbers become more favourable for Vijay if Left parties and smaller allies extend support. According to political indications emerging after the results, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), which won two seats, has signalled “creative and critical appreciation” for the next government. The Communist Party of India and Indian Union Muslim League have also won two seats each.
If all these parties support TVK along with Congress, the tally could touch 119 seats, narrowly crossing the majority mark. Still, complications remain.
X/Vijay Two of the 108 seats won by TVK were secured by Vijay himself, from Tiruchirappalli East and Perambur. Under Election Commission rules, he can retain only one seat, effectively bringing the party’s tally down to 107. In addition, the election of an Assembly Speaker would reduce the party’s effective voting strength during a trust vote.
That means TVK may practically require support from at least 12 additional legislators to comfortably survive a floor test.
Minority government also an option
Another possibility before Vijay is leading a minority government as the single-largest party. But that would mean depending on outside support for confidence motions and legislation, making the administration vulnerable to political instability.
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Speculation is also growing over whether the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam could offer support to TVK. AIADMK spokesperson Kovai Sathyan recently said Vijay would need to make the “first move” if such discussions were to happen.
For now, no formal alliance has been announced between TVK and Congress. But with Tamil Nadu delivering a fractured mandate and Vijay suddenly at the centre of state politics, coalition negotiations are expected to intensify in the coming days.
