Following the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a US military operation, global speculation has intensified. Concerns range from oil markets to international politics, with many questioning how far the instability will spread. However, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) believes the impact on India will be limited.
In a note released on Sunday, GTRI said Venezuela's current crisis is unlikely to have any major effect on India's economy or energy security.
India-Venezuela trade
India once had strong oil and trade relations with Venezuela. Between 2000 and 2010, India was among the top buyers of Venezuelan crude oil. During this period, ONGC Videsh, a state-owned Indian company, also invested in oil exploration projects in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt.
This relationship weakened after 2019 due to US sanctions. India gradually reduced oil imports from Venezuela and scaled back business activities to avoid secondary sanctions. As a result, trade ties between the two countries are now minimal.
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Import and export trends
According to GTRI data, India's total imports from Venezuela in the 2024-25 financial year stood at just $364.5 million. Of this, crude oil accounted for $255.3 million, an 81.3 percent drop compared to the previous year. In 2023-24, India had imported $1.4 billion worth of oil from Venezuela.
India's exports to Venezuela are also limited. In 2024-25, total exports were valued at $95.3 million, with pharmaceuticals making up the largest share at $41.4 million.
Based on these figures, GTRI said the low trade volume, ongoing US sanctions, and the geographical distance between the two countries mean that Venezuela's crisis poses little risk to India at present.
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GTRI's warning on the future
While the immediate impact may be small, GTRI warned that conflicts over raw materials and energy control could increase in the changing global order. It advised India to maintain strategic autonomy and avoid agreements that could harm its sovereignty or long-term interests. Ensuring access to critical raw materials and energy sources without geopolitical pressure is also essential.
GTRI noted that Venezuela holds about 18 percent of the world's oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia, Russia, or the US individually. The organisation believes that gaining control over Venezuela's vast oil reserves was a key objective of the US operation.
Overall, while Venezuela's crisis has shaken global politics, GTRI concludes that its impact on India is likely to remain limited for now.
