As geopolitical tensions reshape global energy flows, China is reinforcing its long-term push for energy security, even as disruptions linked to Donald Trump's policies create short-term challenges.
Pressure points in global energy supply
China imports nearly 80 per cent of its crude oil, with a significant share historically coming from countries such as Iran and Venezuela. Recent tensions involving these regions have raised concerns about supply stability.
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"I don't think there's a master plan. China is the collateral damage here. But to the extent that these conflicts can help the Trump administration achieve other goals vis-a-vis China, that would be the icing on the cake," says Erica Downs.
Building an 'energy fortress'
Chinese leadership, under President Xi Jinping, has been steadily working to reduce reliance on imports. Over the past decade, authorities have expanded energy production across multiple sources, including coal, gas, nuclear and renewables.
Between 2019 and 2024, electricity generation rose sharply—wind by 146 per cent, solar by 275 per cent, nuclear by 32 per cent, coal by 20 per cent, gas by 35 per cent and hydro by 6 per cent.
"Energy security ... really keeps Chinese leaders up at night," says Jane Nakano.
Domestic output and diversification
China has also ramped up domestic oil and gas exploration. Production in key regions, including the South China Sea, has increased significantly, while natural gas output hit record levels last year.
Shale gas development has grown steadily, supported by subsidies and policy backing. The country is also expected to expand pipeline imports from Russia while reassessing reliance on liquefied natural gas routes.
"They've been quite successful in at least capping their import dependence, and having the resilience to deal with the sort of crisis they're in now," says Philip Andrews-Speed.
Coal, renewables and nuclear push
Despite rapid growth in wind and solar, challenges in grid capacity mean coal continues to play a central role. "Wind and solar installation capacities have been outpacing their five-year plan targets, but the actual utilisation of wind and solar has continued to struggle. So for that reason, coal is still the king," Nakano notes.
At the same time, China is expanding its nuclear fleet, with dozens of reactors under construction.
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Resilience, not independence
While China is strengthening domestic capacity, complete independence remains unlikely. "Perfect resilience is unlikely, given the size of the economy and given the fact that it is still heavily manufacturing-based, heavily export-driven," Nakano says. "But achieving more resilience – that's a realistic goal."
As global uncertainties persist, China's strategy reflects a broader effort to cushion its economy against future energy shocks.
