India’s export sector is once again under pressure. According to a recent report by rating agency CRISIL, India’s overall merchandise exports fell by 11.8% in October 2024, dropping to 34.38 billion USD compared to the same period last year. This marks the second major decline in exports since August 2024.
Experts say the numbers clearly reflect the impact of the United States’ decision to increase tariffs on Indian goods by 50% from August 27. The hike has triggered uncertainty and market contraction across export-dependent industries, and the effects are still visible.
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The report notes that the decline is widespread—almost every major sector has been affected. Petroleum products, one of India’s biggest export categories, recorded a 10.4% drop in October, despite seeing a sharp 15.1% rise just a month earlier in September. A similar trend is visible in the core sector, which fell from a 6.1% rise in September to -10.2% in October.
The US remains one of India’s biggest export destinations. India’s exports to the US fell by 8.6% in October, touching 6.3 billion USD. However, this drop is slightly better than September’s deeper fall of 11.9%, suggesting marginal improvement. Moreover, the US decision on November 16 to reduce tariffs on 254 food products offers renewed hope for Indian agricultural exports—especially tea and spices.
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The situation appears more worrying in other global markets. Exports to countries outside the US dropped by 12.5% in October, after having grown by 10.9% in September.
Economists warn that a prolonged downturn in exports could put pressure on employment and industrial output. However, CRISIL’s assessment states that India’s fiscal deficit is likely to remain manageable due to three key factors: strong growth in the services sector, steady remittances from overseas Indians, and relatively low crude oil prices.
With steep declines across sectors such as gems and jewellery, petroleum, iron and steel, and machinery, the trade community is now asking one crucial question: Can India recover quickly from this tariff shock and revive export momentum?
In the coming months, both the government and the markets will be searching for that answer.
