The southwest monsoon is expected to advance over India’s mainland earlier than usual this year, following its early onset over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The India Meteorological Department confirmed on Friday that conditions are favourable for an advanced arrival, with Kerala likely to receive the first showers by May 26.
Under normal conditions, the monsoon reaches the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 22. This year, however, forecasts had already indicated an earlier arrival by May 20. Building on that trend, meteorologists now suggest that the mainland onset could also be ahead of schedule.
Kerala onset expected ahead of June timeline
Traditionally, the monsoon sets in over Kerala by June 1. The latest forecast places the likely onset five days earlier than this standard date. Experts note that while such variations are not unusual, the shift remains within the acceptable range of fluctuation observed over the years.
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Since 2005, the weather office has issued advance forecasts for the Kerala onset date, with a margin of error of up to four days. Historical data shows that these projections have largely remained accurate, with only one notable exception in 2015.
How the monsoon splits into two powerful currents
Meteorologists explain that the southwest monsoon progresses through two primary branches. One branch moves across the Arabian Sea, while the other travels over the Bay of Bengal. The Bay branch typically brings rainfall to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands first. Meanwhile, the Arabian Sea branch advances towards Kerala and plays a crucial role in spreading rainfall across most parts of mainland India.
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Both branches move almost simultaneously, shaping the progression of the monsoon across different regions.
With forecasts pointing to a timely and possibly early spread, attention now turns to how consistently the monsoon advances after its initial onset.
