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T20 World Cup 2026: Are Australia eliminated? Super 8 qualification scenarios decoded

Australia can face elimination after Sri Lanka’s emphatic win throws Group B wide open.

By Rajasree Roy

Feb 17, 2026 12:47 IST

Australia’s Super Eight hopes at the T20 World Cup 2026 are hanging by a thread after a crushing eight-wicket defeat to Sri Lanka in Pallekele on Monday. It was their second straight setback following the loss to Zimbabwe, and the blow could prove fatal in a tightly contested Group B.

Sri Lanka, meanwhile, became the fifth team overall to seal a Super 8 berth, riding on a sensational unbeaten century from Pathum Nissanka. The co-hosts now sit comfortably with 6 points from 3 matches. Australia, in contrast, are third in the group with just 2 points from 3 games and a Net Run Rate of +0.414. Across the tournament, only Group C has both qualifiers confirmed, while in the remaining groups one slot each is still open, keeping 10 teams in the hunt.

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What Australia need to qualify

For Australia, the equation is clear but complicated. They must defeat Oman with a big margin in their final group match and then hope results elsewhere fall in their favour. If Zimbabwe win either of their remaining matches against Sri Lanka or Ireland, they will move to 6 points and eliminate Australia outright.

However, if Zimbabwe lose both fixtures and Australia beat Oman, the Aussies and Ireland would each finish on 4 points from 4 matches. In that scenario, qualification would hinge entirely on Net Run Rate.

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Sri Lanka’s victory was powered by Nissanka’s dazzling 100 off 52 balls, laced with 10 fours and five sixes. He stitched a 97-run stand with Kusal Mendis (51 off 38) as the target of 182 was chased down with two overs to spare.

Earlier, Mitchell Marsh (54) and Travis Head (56) had given Australia a flying start, but Sri Lanka’s bowlers struck back. Leg-spinner Dushan Hemantha claimed 3 for 37, Dushmantha Chameera chipped in with two wickets, and the last four Australian wickets tumbled for just six runs.

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