Nearly two weeks after the southwest monsoon reached Kerala on June 4, satellite observations are revealing a mixed picture of rainfall activity across the country. While eastern and northeastern states continue to receive regular showers, large parts of western and central India are witnessing prolonged dry spells, raising concerns over the pace and distribution of the monsoon.
Analysis of weather satellites is revealing that there have been uneven developments in the monsoon, as moisture-laden weather systems are still active over the Bay of Bengal region but there are scattered instances of rainfall activity elsewhere.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) projections for the coming days show that there are no weather warnings for most parts of India owing to a slowdown in monsoon activity.
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Eastern India sees stronger activity
Satellite imagery from Meteosat, operated by EUMETSAT, shows dense cloud formations over the northern Bay of Bengal, indicating active monsoon conditions across states such as Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar. Northeastern states have also continued to receive rainfall over the past week.
However, the same data shows interruptions in the Arabian Sea branch of the southwest monsoon, limiting sustained rainfall across western India. Instead of continuous downpours, several regions are witnessing short bursts of rain followed by extended dry periods.
The monsoon isn't exactly "failing" rather, its driving force, or engine, is temporarily not functioning as it should. 🌧️
— Md. Abdullah (@mda524360) June 17, 2026
India's southwest monsoon often described as the subcontinent's lifeline has stalled somewhat right at the start of the season.
Between June 4 and June 15,… pic.twitter.com/HvJmkNT24R
Cloud-free zones observed across inland regions further suggest that the monsoon's advance has slowed after an initially rapid progression.
El Niño signals under watch
According to the data provided by satellites operated by NOAA, USA, there appears to be a slow drift towards the north of the ITCZ – which acts as a major contributor of moisture in monsoon winds.
It is believed that such an inactive pattern could be limiting the transportation of moisture into various regions in the country. Besides, images received by the INSAT satellite operated by ISRO show thunderstorms and convection taking place in eastern India, while the cloud cover over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Gujarat, and Rajasthan continues to remain low.
The Meteorologists have also been keeping a close watch on developing conditions of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. It should be noted that the occurrences of El Niño are usually linked with poor monsoon activities.
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The IMD had earlier projected seasonal rainfall at 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), indicating a below-normal monsoon outlook for 2026. It was stated by the agriculture ministry that any possible effect caused by an El Niño could become more significant in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, necessitating better preparations for the same.
Even as rains may persist in certain regions of the country, meteorological experts say the upcoming weeks could play an important role in deciding whether the monsoon gains strength or stays inconsistent throughout the monsoon season.
FAQs
1. Why is the rainfall in India erratic during the current monsoon season?
As per satellite observations, while the monsoon branch that originates from the Bay of Bengal region continues its activities, the one originating from the Arabian Sea is weak, thereby causing rainfall anomalies.
2. How can El Niño affect the monsoon in India?
El Niño is known for reducing rainfall and causing irregularities in the monsoon pattern in India. The onset of El Niño could result in dry spells and erratic rainfall in certain Indian states.
