Will El Niño affect Bengal? IMD flags weaker rainfall risk, warmer days ahead

The India Meteorological Department has confirmed the onset of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and said the phenomenon is likely to intensify through the ongoing southwest monsoon.

That raises a clear question for Bengal: will the state feel the heat and rainfall stress that often accompany El Niño years? The official answer is cautious.

The IMD says El Niño is historically linked with weaker monsoon rainfall, higher temperatures, prolonged dry spells and, in some years, a higher risk of drought, but it is not the only force shaping the season.

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Bengal’s rainfall outlook remains mixed

For Bengal, the more immediate forecast is mixed rather than catastrophic.

The IMD’s Kolkata office says South Bengal is likely to see scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rain and thunderstorms in the first week of the forecast period, but overall rainfall is expected to be below normal in South Bengal during Week-1 and again below normal during Week-2.

North Bengal, meanwhile, is expected to get fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rain, with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall likely in some northern districts on several days. The forecast also points to isolated thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds across both regions.

Uneven monsoon may be Bengal’s bigger concern

The local forecast suggests that El Niño will not translate into an immediate dry spell across Bengal, but it could make the monsoon more uneven, especially if the Pacific warming strengthens as expected.

IMD’s Bengal bulletin also flags maximum temperatures as likely to be slightly above normal over the western part of South Bengal, while the rest of South Bengal and North Bengal are expected to stay closer to normal.

The weather office says it will continue to monitor Pacific conditions and issue monthly updates as the monsoon season progresses.

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FAQs

Q1: Will El Niño affect West Bengal in 2026?

Ans: Yes. IMD says El Niño is expected to strengthen during the southwest monsoon, which could lead to below-normal rainfall in parts of South Bengal and slightly higher temperatures.

Q2: Will El Niño cause drought in Bengal?

Ans: Not necessarily. While El Niño is often linked to weaker monsoon rainfall and drought risk, IMD's current forecast still indicates rain and thunderstorms across both North and South Bengal.