The southwest monsoon is expected to arrive over Kerala on May 26, nearly six days ahead of its usual June 1 onset date, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday, per a report by Hindustan Times. While the early arrival may offer relief from rising temperatures, weather experts have warned that an emerging El Nino could still affect rainfall during the broader monsoon season.
The IMD said conditions are favourable for the monsoon to advance into parts of the south Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands within the next 24 hours. Heavy rainfall activity is also likely along the southern west coast till May 28.
Early onset does not guarantee strong rainfall
The weather agency clarified that the forecast carries an error margin of four days. Historically, the monsoonâs arrival over Kerala has varied naturally, with the standard deviation around seven days.
Experts also cautioned against linking an early onset with a stronger rainy season.
A view of dark clouds covering the city during a rainy day, after South West monsoon made landfall in Kerala. File image/ANI âThere is no correlation between the early onset of monsoon and overall quantum of monsoon rain. In fact, there have been years when monsoon has arrived early but rainfall has been weak. It depends on how many low pressure systems form or how the surge develops because monsoon moves in surges,â Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology, Skymet Weather, was quoted as saying by HT.
El Nino warning raises concerns
At the same time, global weather agencies are closely tracking signs of El Nino formation in the Pacific Ocean. The US Climate Prediction Center said El Nino is âlikely to emerge soonâ and could become âvery strongâ later this year.
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Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have estimated an 82 per cent chance of El Nino developing between May and July. Forecast models suggest it could continue into next year, with more than a 50 per cent chance of turning strong or very strong between September and November.
In India, El Nino conditions are often associated with weaker monsoon rainfall and hotter summers.
A cyclist rides holding an umbrella during a rainy day, after the South West monsoon made landfall in Kerala. File image/ANI IMD predicts below-normal rainfall
The IMDâs first-stage long-range forecast has already projected below-normal rainfall for the June-to-September monsoon season at 92 per cent of the long-period average.
The agency also said heat wave to severe heat wave conditions are likely across northwest and central India this week, while heavy rainfall is expected in parts of northeast India, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south interior Karnataka over the next few days.
