El Niño has become active and may intensify further during the ongoing monsoon season, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Weather experts, however, have indicated that the phenomenon's influence on India's rainfall pattern will depend on how other climate drivers evolve in the coming months.
El Niño conditions are now active
The IMD has confirmed that El Niño conditions are currently present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Scientists are closely monitoring developments as forecasts suggest the phenomenon could gain strength during the monsoon period.
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Speaking about the situation, as per Hindustan Times, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, "El Niño is active now, and it may become stronger during the monsoon season."
El Niño refers to the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The climate pattern can influence weather systems across different parts of the world, including India.
Impact on monsoon not determined by one factor alone
While El Niño has often been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India, meteorologists have stressed that the relationship is not always straightforward.
According to the IMD, rainfall outcomes depend on interactions between several oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Experts noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and other climate patterns can also play important roles in shaping the monsoon.
As a result, the presence of El Niño alone does not automatically determine the overall performance of the rainy season.
IMD continues to monitor climate indicators
Weather agencies are keeping a close watch on evolving global climate conditions to assess how they may affect rainfall distribution across the country.
The IMD has stated that regular updates will continue as new observations and model forecasts become available. Scientists are analysing changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation patterns to better understand the likely trajectory of the monsoon, according to Hindustan Times.
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Focus remains on seasonal rainfall outlook
India's southwest monsoon is crucial for agriculture, water resources and rural livelihoods. Forecasts related to monsoon performance are therefore closely followed by policymakers, farmers and businesses.
For now, the IMD has reiterated that El Niño is active and could strengthen in the coming months. However, officials have emphasised that the final impact on India's monsoon will depend on the combined influence of multiple climate systems rather than a single weather phenomenon.
As the season progresses, meteorologists will continue evaluating these factors to provide updated assessments of rainfall trends across the country.
