With just two days left for Bangladesh’s 13th national Parliamentary election, pre-poll survey results have drawn sharp attention, especially in India. This will be the country’s first general election after the fall of the Sheikh Hasina regime, and the contest is shaping up to be extremely close.
BNP, Jamaat alliances locked in tight race
According to a survey by Bangladesh’s International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD), the alliance led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is projected to secure 44.1 per cent of the vote. Close behind is the 11-party alliance led by Jamaat-e-Islami, which is expected to get 43.9 per cent, reported Prothom Alo.
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The survey suggests that while the Tarique Rahman-led BNP is ahead in overall vote share, the Jamaat-led alliance is stronger in constituencies where results look more certain. Jamaat and its allies could be assured of victory in 105 seats, compared to 101 seats for the BNP-led alliance. Around 75 constituencies are expected to see tough, neck-and-neck contests between the two sides.
Bangladesh’s Parliament, the Jatiya Sangsad, has 350 seats. Of these, 300 are directly elected, while 50 seats are reserved for women and allotted proportionally based on results.
Another survey sees bigger win for BNP
A separate survey by Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) presents a clearer advantage for the BNP-led alliance. It estimates that BNP and its allies could win around 208 seats. Jamaat-e-Islami–led groups are projected to get 46 seats, the Jatiya Party three seats, other parties four seats, and independents 17 seats.
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The EASD survey also shows voter preference strongly favouring BNP. About 66.3 per cent of voters backed BNP, while Jamaat-e-Islami received 11.9 per cent support. The NCP got 1.7 per cent, with the rest spread among other parties.
Analysts say the results are encouraging for India, as BNP is seen as filling the liberal-centrist space once held by the Awami League. Jamaat-e-Islami and the newly formed student-backed NCP are known for their anti-India positions. Many believe India may work to improve ties with Tarique Rahman, who met External Affairs minister S Jaishankar last month, if BNP forms the next government, while continuing to engage with all political forces in Bangladesh.
