The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that there is an 80 per cent chance of El Nino conditions developing between June and August this year, raising concerns about extreme weather patterns across the globe and the possibility of a weaker monsoon in India.
El Nino is a climate phenomenon linked to the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It usually lasts between nine and 12 months and is known to disrupt rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide.
🆕 WMO confirms: El Niño conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns around the world in the months ahead. Most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate – possibly strong.
— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) June 2, 2026
Be prepared. More info➡️ https://t.co/htyps0XfsE pic.twitter.com/0dbWunyqyU
What El Nino could mean for India
In India, El Nino is commonly associated with reduced monsoon rainfall and more intense summer heat. According to the latest WMO update, the current El Nino event is expected to be moderate and could even become strong.
Also Read | India cuts monsoon forecast to 90% of normal amid El Niño risk
The agency also said that the probability of El Nino conditions continuing until at least November is “near or above 90 per cent”.
“The science is clear: El Nino is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90 per cent certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a statement.
He added, “El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.”
Watch @UN Secretary-General @antonioguterres' message about the emerging El Niño that is set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather in the coming months.
— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) June 2, 2026
More information ➡️ https://t.co/htyps0XfsE pic.twitter.com/ZZd5FnvqPO
Below-normal rainfall forecast
A seasonal forecast issued by WMO on April 30 suggested that rainfall during the June-September southwest monsoon could remain below normal across much of South Asia, especially over central regions.
The forecast map released by the agency indicated below-normal rainfall over almost all parts of India.
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WMO said its El Nino updates are prepared using climate models from Global Producing Centres, along with inputs from national meteorological and hydrological services and climate prediction experts worldwide.
Concerns over rising ocean temperatures
The warning comes as ocean temperatures continue to rise sharply. According to reports cited by HT, ocean temperatures recorded this April were the highest since the record warmth seen in 2024.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The most recent El Nino, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024.”
