India is set to slip to the sixth-largest economy in 2025 in dollar terms, as a weakening rupee and revised GDP base year alter global rankings, according to the latest estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Rupee impact shifts rankings
The data shows that India, which was the fifth-largest economy in 2024 with a GDP of $3.76 trillion, has moved behind the UK in 2025. India's GDP is estimated at $3.92 trillion, while the UK is projected at $4 trillion, pushing India down by one spot.
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A key factor behind this shift is currency movement. The Indian rupee has depreciated from 84.57 against the US dollar in 2024 to 88.48 in 2025, and is expected to weaken further to 92.59 this year. In contrast, the British pound has strengthened against the dollar, boosting the UK's position in nominal GDP terms, per The Times of India report.
Growth remains strong in domestic terms
Despite the ranking change, India continues to post strong growth in rupee terms. GDP at current prices rose from Rs 318 lakh crore in 2024 to nearly Rs 347 lakh crore in 2025, marking a 9 per cent increase. It is projected to grow by almost 11 per cent to Rs 385 lakh crore this year.
What IMF projections indicate
According to IMF projections reflected in the data, India is expected to remain the sixth-largest economy in 2026 as well, with GDP at $4.15 trillion; still behind the UK at $4.26 trillion. However, the gap narrows significantly in the following years.
By 2027, India is projected to reach $4.58 trillion, slightly ahead of the UK’s $4.47 trillion and close to Japan's $4.56 trillion. The trend continues, with India expected to climb to $6.17 trillion by 2030 and $6.79 trillion by 2031.
Third-largest goal may take longer
While earlier expectations pointed to India overtaking Japan by 2025-26, current projections suggest a longer timeline. Even by 2030, India's GDP ($6.17 trillion) remains marginally behind Germany ($6.18 trillion).
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It is only by 2031, with GDP estimated at $6.79 trillion, that India is likely to firmly move closer to becoming the world's third-largest economy, though not before that timeline.
