The southwest monsoon officially made its onset over Kerala on Thursday, signalling the beginning of India’s crucial four-month rainy season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced. The seasonal rains arrived three days later than the usual date of June 1.
Earlier, on May 15, the weather agency had projected that the monsoon would reach Kerala around May 26, with a possible variation of four days on either side. Despite the delay, meteorologists say conditions have now become favourable for a steady advance across more parts of the country.
Also Read | India simplifies visa process as MHA removes dual security clearance rule
Rain belt expands across southern regions
According to the IMD, the monsoon has covered the remaining parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, sections of the west-central and east-central Arabian Sea, the entire Lakshadweep region, Kerala and Mahe, and parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. It has also advanced over the remaining Comorin area, the southeast Bay of Bengal, and additional areas of the southwest, westcentral, eastcentral and northeast Bay of Bengal.
IMD issues rain alerts as monsoon advances across southern India. /ANI The current northern limit of the monsoon passes through Mangalore, Uthagamandalam, Kodaikanal and Thoothukudi.
The IMD said, “Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of central Arabian Sea, entire Goa, some parts of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, some more parts of Karnataka, remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, Southwest Bay of Bengal, some more parts of Westcentral, Eastcentral and Northeast Bay of Bengal, some parts of Northeastern states during next 2-3 days.”
Heavy rainfall reported in Kerala
Weather officials noted a noticeable increase in convective cloud activity over the southeast Arabian Sea during the past two days. The department also observed strong lower-level westerly winds and atmospheric conditions supportive of monsoon progression.
“There has been widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall over Kerala during the past two days. Considering all the above satisfied conditions, Southwest Monsoon has set in over Kerala today, 4 June 2026,” the IMD said.
Heavy showers lash Kerala as monsoon makes its official onset. /ANI An orange alert remains in place for parts of Kerala as rainfall activity continues across the state.
El Niño could influence monsoon pattern
The monsoon onset comes amid growing concerns over the development of El Niño conditions. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80% chance of an El Niño event emerging during June-August 2026.
Also Read | Cloudbursts trigger flash floods, disrupt traffic in Jammu and Kashmir's Kishtwar and Doda
Forecasts indicate that the phenomenon is likely to persist until at least November, with a probability nearing or exceeding 90%. Most climate models suggest the event could become moderate or even strong.
Monsoon gains momentum, with more states expected to receive rains soon. /ANI A seasonal outlook released by the WMO on April 30 indicated that rainfall during the June-September southwest monsoon season may remain below normal across much of South Asia, particularly in central regions. A rainfall projection map issued by the organisation also showed below-normal precipitation across most parts of India.
