While the West Bengal state goes into an upcoming two-stage assembly election campaign, there is also a separate betting battle taking place on prediction platforms, where more than $2 million reportedly traded on global prediction platforms that are not permitted to operate in India.
Based on publicly available data and information shared through social media posts, Polymarket, a prediction platform based in the United States, is witnessing a lot of action in the "West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner" market. The volume makes it one of the most actively traded Indian state election markets on such platforms.
Also Read | Violence at your booth? Contact Election Commission on THIS toll-free number
It is being revealed through the data shared on social media accounts that there is a narrow preference for Bharatiya Janata Party over All India Trinamool Congress, led by Mamata Banerjee. The Communist Party of India is seen as having negligible chances in the market.
What are prediction markets—and why they matter
The key difference between prediction markets and ordinary polls is that the former allows for transactions based on actual prices of potential events. Prediction markets provide price estimates that correspond to the expectations of all participants, where the higher the price, the greater the expected probability of occurrence of the predicted event.
Proponents of the use of prediction markets highlight that the use of money encourages more precise forecasting by respondents. Prediction markets are known for their high predictive accuracy, although the validity of this claim is disputable.
Nonetheless, prediction markets cannot be considered a method of electoral polling in India since they are not state regulated.
Banned in India, active abroad
Despite the growing chatter, such platforms are not legally accessible within India. The government banned prediction-based wagering under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act (PROGA) in 2025, prohibiting platforms from offering bets on real-world events, including elections.
This indicates that most of the trade witnessed on these sites like Polymarket comes from sources beyond India, especially in areas where such trades happen through either regulated market or market grey areas.
Election timeline and importance
The West Bengal Assembly polls will be held in two rounds on April 23rd and April 29th with the result coming out on May 4th. This contest is still very crucial between the BJP party and the TMC, which has ruled in the state since 2011.
Only when the counting is done shall we be able to know whether the foreign traders were accurate in their political understanding of the situation.
