New demographic projections in the United States are painting a picture of significant population changes over the next few decades, with several states expected to see white populations fall below the 50 percent mark by 2050.
The projections, cited in a report by the New York Post, suggest the country’s demographic makeup will continue shifting because of international migration, domestic movement patterns, and declining birth rates among white Americans.
Nationally, the white share of the US population is projected to decline sharply from nearly 80 percent in 1980 to around 47 percent by the middle of the century.
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States expected to lose white-majority status
According to the Hindustan Times, the projections indicate that states including New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Washington could all see white populations drop below half by 2050.
New York’s white population is projected to fall to roughly 46 percent, while New Jersey could decline to 37 percent and Connecticut to about 45 percent.
Several states had already crossed this demographic threshold earlier. According to previous census figures, California, Hawaii, and New Mexico became majority non-white around 2000, while Maryland, Nevada, and Texas joined the list by 2020.
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California and Texas expected to change rapidly
According to the Hindustan Times, among the most dramatic shifts are projected in California and Texas, two of America’s largest states.
California’s white population share, estimated at around 35 percent in 2020, is projected to decline further to nearly 23 percent by 2050 and potentially 20 percent by 2060.
Texas is also expected to see a substantial drop, with projections suggesting the white population share could decline from around 40 percent in 2020 to 27 percent by 2050.
Experts attribute these changes to a combination of migration trends, higher diversity among younger populations, and evolving birth rates across communities.
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Some states likely to remain overwhelmingly white
According to the Hindustan Times, despite the broader national trend, several states are expected to remain predominantly white for decades.
West Virginia is projected to remain among the least ethnically diverse states in the country. Its white population share, estimated at 89 percent in 2020, is expected to decline only slightly to around 86 percent by 2050.
Other states, including Massachusetts, Virginia, Rhode Island, Minnesota, and North Carolina, are also projected to move closer to majority non-white populations by 2060 as demographic transitions continue reshaping the United States.
