The country's attention has shifted to exit polls ahead of the May 4 counting day, widely seen as an indicator of voter sentiment. Polling has concluded across West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry, with projections offering an initial sense of trends before final results.
However, West Bengal is set for counting on May 4, with results to be declared for 293 of the 294 Assembly constituencies. The exception is Falta in South 24 Parganas, where the poll process is still underway following serious complaints of electoral irregularities.
In India, exit poll data is released under strict guidelines laid down by the Election Commission (EC) to prevent influencing voters during ongoing polling.
With fresh projections expected later today, the 2021 Assembly elections offer a useful benchmark. They show that while exit polls often pointed in the right direction, their seat estimates frequently differed from the final results.
West Bengal: A wide gap between estimates and outcomes
West Bengal stood out for the sharp divergence between predictions and the actual verdict. Several exit polls suggested a tight race between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with some even indicating a significant surge for the BJP.
Also Read | Exit polls 2021 revisited: Who got it right and who missed big?
Axis My India projected 130–156 seats for TMC and 134–160 for BJP. Jan Ki Baat estimated 104–121 for TMC and 162–185 for BJP. ABP-CVoter placed TMC at 152–164 and BJP at 109–121. News 24–Today’s Chanakya forecast 180 seats for TMC.
The outcome, however, was decisive. In the 294-seat Assembly, TMC secured 215 seats, while BJP won 77.
Tamil Nadu: Clear signal on the winner
In Tamil Nadu, exit polls were largely consistent in predicting the winning alliance. Most surveys placed the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) led front comfortably ahead.
India Today-Axis My India projected 175–195 seats for DMK+ and 38–54 for AIADMK+. Today’s Chanakya estimated 164–186 for DMK+ and 46–68 for AIADMK+. Jan Ki Baat/CNX gave 160–170 seats to DMK+ and 56–68 to AIADMK+.
The final tally saw the DMK-led alliance win 159 seats, with DMK alone securing 133. The AIADMK alliance finished with 75 seats.
Kerala: Exit Polls anticipated the break in trend
Kerala’s verdict marked a departure from its long-standing pattern of alternating governments. Exit polls broadly indicated that the Left Democratic Front (LDF) would retain power.
Axis My India projected 104–120 seats for LDF and 20–36 for UDF. CVoter estimated 71–77 for LDF and 62–68 for UDF. Republic-CNX placed LDF at 72–80 and UDF at 58–64. News 24–Today’s Chanakya projected 102 seats for LDF.
The results showed LDF winning 99 seats in the 140-member Assembly, while UDF secured 41.
Also Read | What are exit polls and how reliable are they? Here's a look at the process behind predictions
Assam: Broadly accurate direction
In Assam, most exit polls suggested that the BJP-led alliance would return to power. Estimates placed the NDA near or above the majority mark of 63 seats.
Axis My India projected 75–85 seats for NDA and 40–50 for Congress+. Republic-CNX estimated 74–84 for NDA, while CVoter projected 58–71 for NDA and 53–66 for Congress+.
Puducherry: Exit Polls pointed to power shift
In Puducherry, most exit polls signalled a change in government, with projections favouring the NDA in the Union Territory’s 30-member Assembly.
Axis My India projected 20–24 seats for NDA and 6–10 for UPA. CVoter also indicated a similar trend, estimating 19–23 seats for NDA and 6–10 for UPA.
The outcome confirmed the broader direction suggested by these projections. The NDA went on to form the government, securing 16 seats.
What 2021 tells us about Exit Poll reliability
The 2021 results suggest that while exit polls often indicate the likely winner, their seat projections can vary significantly. As fresh numbers emerge, trends may become clearer, but the outcome will only be confirmed on counting day.
