As India heads into the 2026 Assembly election exit polls, a look back at 2021 shows how uneven predictions were across states. The elections that year spanned West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry, putting major agencies such as Axis My India, CVoter, Jan Ki Baat and Today's Chanakya under scrutiny. Each got at least one call right, but none delivered a flawless performance.
West Bengal: The biggest miss
West Bengal stood out as the most striking example of prediction gaps. Most agencies projected a close fight between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
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Axis My India estimated TMC at 130-156 seats and BJP at 134-160. Jan Ki Baat predicted BJP 162-185 and TMC 104-121. C-Voter projected TMC 152-164 and BJP 109-121. The actual result was far from these ranges, with TMC winning 215 seats and BJP 77.
Jan Ki Baat's projection, which gave BJP a majority, was the most off-mark. Even agencies that placed TMC ahead underestimated the scale of its victory.
Kerala: Direction right, numbers off
In Kerala, most pollsters correctly predicted a win for the Left Democratic Front (LDF), breaking the state's alternating trend. Axis My India projected LDF at 104-120 seats, while C-Voter placed it at 71-77.
The LDF eventually secured 99 seats, while the United Democratic Front (UDF) won 41. Axis My India overestimated LDF but stayed closer to the result. C-Voter's projection placed UDF much higher than its final tally, making it one of the larger misses.
Tamil Nadu: Unanimous but imprecise
Pollsters were aligned in Tamil Nadu, all forecasting a win for the DMK-led alliance. Axis My India projected 175-195 seats for the alliance, while Today’s Chanakya estimated 164-186.
The DMK alliance won 159 seats, and the AIADMK alliance secured 75. While the outcome was correctly predicted, the seat ranges overshot the actual numbers, especially for the opposition.
Assam: Closest call
Assam was where predictions came closest to reality. Axis My India projected the NDA at 75-85 seats, while C-Voter estimated 58-71.
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The NDA won 75 seats, matching the lower bound of Axis My India’s projection. C-Voter, however, placed the NDA below its final tally and overestimated the opposition alliance.
Puducherry: Right direction, higher estimates
In Puducherry, both Axis My India and C-Voter projected an NDA victory, estimating 20-24 and 19-23 seats respectively. The NDA formed the government with 16 seats, meaning both agencies overestimated the margin.
A pattern of partial accuracy
Across all five states, no agency predicted both the correct winner and exact seat tally everywhere. Axis My India identified the winning party in all states and came closest in Assam. C-Voter’s Kerala projection stood out as one of the widest gaps. Today’s Chanakya, while limited in coverage, matched outcomes where it conducted surveys.
The 2021 results showed that exit polls in India often capture the direction of results but struggle with precision, particularly in states with complex political dynamics.
