As voting concludes across key states, all eyes will return to the exit polls. But long before exit polls became a main event on TV networks around the world, there was a rather academic experiment aimed at predicting outcomes prior to counting votes.
Where did exit polls begin?
The concept of assessing voter behaviour after casting their votes was first raised in the United States in the middle of the 20th Century. Thus, one of the first mass-scale exit polls in history took place in 1967, initiated by Warren Mitofsky, an American scientist, who conducted an exit poll in the gubernatorial race in Kentucky.
At the same time, in the Netherlands, Dutch sociologist Marcel van Dam made his own attempts to assess voting behaviour using the exit poll technique.
In the United States, exit polls began to gain popularity only in 1980 after publishing some projections based on the results of exit polls prior to closing of polls.
How did exit polls reach India?
India’s tryst with exit polls began in 1996, when Doordarshan partnered with the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) to broadcast the country’s first major exit poll.
Voters sit in a boat as a man shows his ink-marked finger after casting vote during the second phase of West Bengal Election ANI
The survey projected the Bharatiya Janata Party as the leading force, a forecast that came close to the final outcome. Since then, exit polls have become a central feature of election coverage, shaping public discourse in the hours between voting and counting.
How do exit polls work?
These polls are taken outside the polling booth by asking the voters about their decisions right after the casting of votes. They collect information from many people and analyse that data to find out the number of seats won, the swing of votes and the issue prevailing amongst voters.
Also Read | Exit polls 2021 revisited: Who got it right and who missed big?
Some exit polls have predicted results accurately, while some have failed because of different reasons like sampling errors or change in voter behavior.
Why do they lack accuracy?
Despite being popular tools for analysis, exit polls can still not predict results with great accuracy. There can be differences in the methodology used, some groups of voters may be underrepresented, and late swings could result in a wrong prediction.
In India, there are strict guidelines governing these polls as well. As per Section 126A of Representation of the People Act, 1951, the results cannot be published until all phases of elections are completed. Violators may face severe punishments including jail terms.
