GTA 6 delay probability jumps 29%: Will Rockstar Games disappoint fans again?

For years, Grand Theft Auto 6 has been the most talked-about upcoming video game in the world. Every trailer, leak and rumour has been dissected by fans hoping to catch a glimpse of what Rockstar Games has been building.

However, the concern has been fueled by recent trends surfacing on Polymarket, a prediction platform where users place bets on the outcomes of real-world events.

{Such markets do not confirm anything officially; they reflect speculation influenced by leaks}

The latest data circulating on Polymarket suggests that there is roughly a 29 per cent chance that GTA 6 could face another delay.

ALSO READ| GTA 6 confirmed for November 2026 launch: Price, platforms and what to expect

Then at one point, the probability even climbed to 50 per cent, which triggered fresh debates across gaming communities online.

Even more worrying for some fans is the pattern behind the numbers. The trend has been slowly inching upward, with the probability reportedly rising by about 1 per cent at regular intervals.

GTA 6's official date vs. what prediction markets are saying

Prediction markets such as Polymarket are more susceptible to new information. In case of plausible leaks, insider reports or rumours indicate production challenges, then the betting patterns tend to change too.

That doesn’t necessarily mean the game will be delayed.

For now, Rockstar Games has maintained its official timeline. According to the developer’s latest announcement, GTA 6 is scheduled to launch on November 19, 2026.

Until the studio says otherwise, that remains the only confirmed release date. Fans, meanwhile, are hoping that Rockstar manages to stick to the plan this time.

ALSO READ| Rockstar North explosion sparks GTA 6 delay fears: Will November 2026 release be affected?

Notably, earlier leaks that surfaced before November 2025 suggested that GTA 6 could carry a price tag exceeding $100, which would have made it one of the most expensive standard video game releases ever.

However, more recent reports now suggest that the GTA 6 Standard Edition may launch at around $70 globally, which would align with current pricing trends for major AAA games. In India, the expected price is reportedly around Rs 7,499.