Russia's alleged Armenia election play puts Moscow and West at odds

Russia has intensified covert efforts to influence Armenia’s June 7 election and weaken Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s bid for re-election, according to Western intelligence and government officials cited by Reuters.

The reporting says Moscow fears a Pashinyan victory could cement Armenia’s shift toward the West, after years in which the country remained largely in Russia’s orbit.

Officials said the effort includes disinformation campaigns, support for pro-Russian figures and a plan to move tens of thousands of Russian-based Armenians into the country to vote.

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Armenia's westward turn and Russia's concerns

The Reuters report says Armenia, a landlocked country of about 3 million people, hosts Russian troops and is part of a Russian-led economic bloc, but Pashinyan has moved closer to Europe and NATO.

The prime minister has also emerged as an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, who endorsed his re-election bid this week, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Yerevan and signed a minerals deal and a transport agreement tied to a proposed corridor through southern Armenia.

Western officials said Moscow sees that corridor as a threat because it could further reduce Russian influence in the region. Carnegie Europe senior fellow Thomas de Waal told Reuters, “What Pashinyan is trying to do is a threat to Russia,” adding that diversification “means Russia loses the virtual monopoly it’s had in Armenia.”

An ambitious undertaking, if true

Russian officials have discussed using the Armenian diaspora in Russia to sway the vote, with some estimates placing that community at more than 2 million.

Because Armenians cannot vote from abroad, the reported plan would involve transporting Russia-based Armenians to Armenia to support Pashinyan’s opponents. Russian authorities estimated the cost at about $50 million to move 100,000 voters, and by mid-May had set quotas for each region and asked local administrators to report on preparations.

Reuters said it could not verify whether the plan was underway or whether it would be enough to change the result, though an early-May poll suggested Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party was leading with about 30% of the vote, while billionaire Samvel Karapetyan’s Strong Armenia was far behind on about 6%.

Karapetyan denies the allegations against him, and his lawyer told he had no knowledge of Russian backing.

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Shadows in the wireless age

The is a wider online influence effort. Western officials said Russian-backed campaigns have tried to discredit Pashinyan’s government, including a false allegation about a corrupt land deal involving the prime minister and two US senators.

One European official said a Kremlin-linked bot network known as Storm-1516 was involved, while Reuters said it reviewed five Russian-language documents it was told were produced by the Social Design Agency, a consultancy sanctioned by the EU and Britain over disinformation tied to Ukraine.

One of those documents reportedly proposed a media outlet called Yerevan1 for the Armenian diaspora in Russia, aimed at promoting a “negative attitude” toward Pashinyan and the idea that “Armenia can only prosper in a close alliance with Russia and under its protection.”

Moscow’s foreign ministry dismissed the claims as “spymania,” while Armenia’s government said it is taking steps to counter disinformation and ensure a free and fair election.