Voting in West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and the Union Territory of Puducherry for Assembly elections will be tallied on Monday, and the result is expected to transform political equations regionally.
As counting has kicked off at 8 am, four crucial questions, derived from voter behaviour and electoral trends are expected to define the mandate received.
Can BJP surpass its ceiling in West Bengal?
In West Bengal, the central question remains whether the Bharatiya Janata Party can push past its existing vote share ceiling to challenge the ruling All India Trinamool Congress.
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The BJP has always polled about 40%, coming across as the main opposition party in the state. Experts claim that for the BJP to come close to polling around the same percentage as the TMC, it needs to consolidate votes amongst the Hindu community, almost getting two-thirds of their votes.
Will Congress broaden its base in Assam?
In Assam, the spotlight is on whether the Indian National Congress can expand beyond its current support base.
While the party has seen a decline in overall legislative strength in recent years, its representation among Muslim voters has grown. The challenge now lies in regaining traction among non-Muslim voters to effectively counter the BJP’s dominance in the state.
Can the Left hold ground in Kerala?
Another case would be Kerala. For many years, it followed the pattern of changing hands between the Congress and the communist parties. But in 2021, a change occurred; the Left Democratic Front won after the rule of the Congress government ended.
In the case of Kerala, an important factor would be to examine if the LDF will manage to hold its votes at about 43-45%, because otherwise, it means that the LDF will experience some problems with its voters, and the BJP might have a chance.
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Will Vijay shake Tamil Nadu’s political stability?
Tamil Nadu has seen yet another twist in its politics. This came in the form of actor-turned-politician Vijay who started a party Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).
Two Dravidian parties have been receiving the majority of votes for many years. The extent to which TVK can attract undecided voters or draw support away from established players will be critical.
