There have been renewed discussions around whether Donald Trump could be removed using the 25th Amendment, drawing attention beyond routine political debates. This conversation has gained traction in recent days and the prediction markets are now reflecting a noticeable shift.
On the trading platform Kalshi, users have been placing bets on whether the provision could be invoked during Trump's presidency. The "Yes" side has risen from 28.6 per cent to 35.1 per cent over the past month, marking one of its highest levels since the start of his second term. Earlier in January 2025, the same figure stood at 15 per cent, reported Financial Express.
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What is the 25th Amendment?
The 25th Amendment to the US Constitution was adopted in 1967 following the assassination of John F. Kennedy. It was designed to clarify the process of transferring presidential power in cases of incapacity.
While it is often discussed, the amendment has never been used to remove a sitting president. It has primarily been applied in temporary situations, such as when a president undergoes a medical procedure and transfers authority briefly.
Invoking the Act would require the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to declare that the president is unable to perform duties. The president can contest this decision, after which Congress must step in. A two-thirds majority in both houses is required to uphold the removal.
Why attention is rising now
The renewed focus comes amid escalating tensions involving the United States and Iran, along with reactions to Trump's recent public statements.
Prediction market activity suggests traders are responding to these developments, including geopolitical tensions and statements related to the Strait of Hormuz.
In one such post, Trump wrote, "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F*****’ Strait you crazy b*******, or you’ll be living in Hell—JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah."
