Bangladesh is holding its national election today, the first since the 2024 ouster of Sheikh Hasina after her 15-year rule, following the Gen Z-led ‘Monsoon Revolution’ and 18 months of interim governance under Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus.
Hasina’s Awami League has been banned under the Anti-Terrorism Act and will not be contesting the polls. In its absence, pre-election surveys suggest that nearly half of its former voters are now backing the BNP, while around 30 per cent are shifting toward Jamaat-e-Islami. BNP chairman Tarique Rahman, who has returned after 17 years in exile, is emerging as a key prime ministerial contender if his party secures a strong mandate.
Surveys indicate a close fight primarily between the BNP and Jamaat, with other parties drawing limited support. Jamaat is gaining traction among younger and more educated voters, whereas the BNP is consolidating its base among working-age citizens, farmers and labourers. The National Citizen Party, born out of the 2024 student uprising, has aligned with Jamaat in an 11-party coalition aimed at challenging dynastic politics. With voters aged 18 to 37 years accounting for 44 per cent of the electorate, the youth vote is expected to be decisive.
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Key voter concerns
According to Reuters, corruption is the top concern among voters. Bangladesh has performed poorly on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, and both the BNP and Jamaat have made anti-corruption promises central to their campaigns.
Inflation is another major issue, recorded at 8.58 per cent in January. Rising prices have been cited by more than two-thirds of respondents in surveys. Economic growth has also slowed. Once one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies, Bangladesh has struggled since the COVID-19 pandemic and disruptions to its export-driven garment sector during the 2024 unrest.
Employment remains a pressing challenge. With around 40 per cent of the population under 30 years, job creation is seen as essential for the next government.
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Strained India ties, outreach to China and Pakistan
Relations with India have worsened since Hasina fled there after unrest that reportedly killed around 1,400 people. In November, she was convicted of crimes against humanity and sentenced to death. India has declined extradition, calling the matter political in nature.
Anti-India rhetoric, violence and reported attacks on minorities, including the 13 million-strong Hindu population, have added to tensions, though Dhaka maintains that such incidents are politically motivated. India has also reduced its financial assistance to Bangladesh by half in its latest budget.
Since returning to power, Muhammad Yunus has sought to strengthen ties with India’s western and northern neighbours. During a March 2025 visit to China, Yunus described Bangladesh as the "only guardian of the ocean" for India’s northeastern states, a remark that drew concern in New Delhi. China is involved in major infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, including the modernisation of Mongla Port and a Teesta River water management project, which remains stalled in negotiations with India.
Bangladesh has also moved to improve relations with Pakistan despite their complex history since 1971. Recent measures include easing visa and trade restrictions, starting direct sea links between Chittagong and Karachi, and discussions on defence cooperation, including the possible purchase of the China-Pakistan jointly produced JF-17 fighter aircraft.
