India may have a difficult weather pattern in the year 2026. Early signs show that El Niño could return again. This weather pattern can change how rain and heat occur. Because of this, India’s monsoon may get affected.
Scientists say the Pacific Ocean is slowly getting warmer. This warming can disturb weather systems across the world. It may cause less rain and more heat in India. This can create problems for farming and water supply.
WMO signals El Niño onset soon
According to the World Meteorological Organisation, most climate models now agree that El Niño is likely to develop between May and July. This has raised concerns about below-normal rainfall, longer heatwaves, and increased pressure on water resources in many regions.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO, as per news agency ANI.
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What is El Niño and why does it matter
El Niño is a climate pattern in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. It is part of the ENSO cycle, which includes El Niño, La Niña, and neutral phases, each affecting global weather patterns in different ways.
This warming disrupts atmospheric circulation, shifting rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures worldwide. “Models indicate that this may be a strong event, but the so-called spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April,” he added.
How El Niño affects global weather
When El Niño happens, it changes how heat and moisture move around the Earth, which affects weather patterns. It can make places like Australia and Indonesia drier, while bringing more rain to parts of South America and Africa. It also makes global temperatures rise and can affect cyclones and hurricanes. Even though its effects are different in each region, El Niño usually increases extreme weather events around the world.
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What is going to be its impact on India
As per a Hindustan Times report, India’s monsoon depends a lot on El Niño, making it sensitive to changes in this climate pattern. Forecasts suggest rainfall may drop to around 92% of the long-period average, which could affect farming and rural incomes.
The country may also face uneven rainfall, longer dry spells, and rising temperatures. At the same time, lower Himalayan snow cover—already 27.8% below normal—could put extra pressure on rivers and reduce water availability.
If current projections remain accurate, India may face weaker monsoon rains along with intense heatwaves. This combination could put pressure on water resources and disrupt farming cycles across many states.
The risk becomes more serious as climate change intensifies natural patterns like El Niño. Warmer oceans and atmosphere can lead to more extreme weather events, making their impacts stronger than before.
To reduce potential damage in 2026, early preparation will be crucial. Effective water management, improved crop planning, and climate adaptation strategies can help minimise the risks.
