The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said the 2026 southwest monsoon is most likely to be “below normal", with seasonal rainfall projected at 92% of the long-period average between June and September.
The forecast, released from New Delhi on April 13, comes with a model error of ±5% and marks the lowest first long-range outlook in nearly 30 years, according to the IMD press release.
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Earth’s science season
The IMD said weak La Niña-like conditions are shifting to ENSO-neutral in the equatorial Pacific, while its climate system points to the development of El Niño during the monsoon season.
It also noted that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are currently in place, though positive IOD conditions may emerge towards the end of the season. The agency said an updated forecast will be issued in the last week of May.
Downside risk to growth and prices
In a Financial Express report, M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said, “The 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be below normal.”
The forecast could hurt agricultural output, rural incomes, and inflation, especially if rainfall remains weak in June and July, when kharif sowing begins. Crops such as pulses, oilseeds, coarse cereals, and cotton rely heavily on the southwest monsoon.
Aditi Nayar of ICRA said the forecast, along with Middle East tensions, “poses downside risks to India’s GDP growth” in FY27, while lower rainfall could push average inflation higher.
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India’s March retail inflation stood at 3.4%, with food and beverage inflation at 3.87%, underscoring the sensitivity of household budgets to weather-led supply shocks.
